Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
