A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
